Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-20

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-10) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-10 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-10. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-10. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-10. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-10. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-10)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-10) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 59 (20 – 91) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 39 (6 – Inf)
Algeria 128 (75 – 174) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 16 (6.5 – Inf)
Argentina 119 (73 – 164) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 37 (8.4 – Inf)
Armenia 60 (25 – 96) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.7 – Inf)
Australia 55 (20 – 88) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -33 (8.6 – Inf)
Austria 128 (65 – 185) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -11 (1600 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 60 (23 – 96) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -44 (7.9 – Inf)
Bahrain 79 (31 – 123) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -21 (12 – Inf)
Bangladesh 288 (224 – 345) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.7) 9 (5.9 – 19)
Belarus 473 (390 – 557) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 20 (11 – 170)
Belgium 1359 (1213 – 1489) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -210 (50 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 63 (24 – 101) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 20 (5 – Inf)
Brazil 2793 (2608 – 3013) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 13 (10 – 17)
Cameroon 57 (27 – 84) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 8.2 (3.6 – Inf)
Canada 1587 (1433 – 1729) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (18 – 120)
Chile 461 (378 – 534) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 44 (15 – Inf)
China 162 (68 – 262) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) 12 (4.9 – Inf)
Colombia 169 (112 – 216) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 610 (13 – Inf)
Cote dIvoire 55 (18 – 87) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 29 (5.3 – Inf)
Croatia 51 (7 – 89) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -20 (7.9 – Inf)
Cuba 68 (33 – 105) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 32 (6.1 – Inf)
Czechia 133 (79 – 188) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -45 (14 – Inf)
Denmark 192 (134 – 249) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -240 (15 – Inf)
Djibouti 122 (79 – 172) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2.2) 5.6 (3.6 – 13)
Dominican Republic 256 (194 – 318) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 27 (10 – Inf)
Ecuador 359 (286 – 428) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -14 (77 – Inf)
Egypt 180 (118 – 234) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 27 (8.8 – Inf)
Estonia 46 (12 – 72) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 21 (4.5 – Inf)
Finland 142 (89 – 180) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 35 (8.8 – Inf)
France 2153 (1955 – 2325) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -15 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 3053 (2838 – 3263) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -80 (77 – Inf)
Ghana 64 (28 – 91) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 26 (6 – Inf)
Greece 40 (5 – 70) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -11 (9.5 – Inf)
Guinea 54 (18 – 89) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2) 10 (3.8 – Inf)
Hungary 96 (47 – 137) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) -250 (9.4 – Inf)
Iceland 31 (0 – 60) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.2) -41 (2.8 – Inf)
India 1094 (967 – 1214) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 38 (18 – Inf)
Indonesia 357 (283 – 435) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 50 (14 – Inf)
Iran 1499 (1369 – 1652) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 37 (11 – 64) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -14 (9 – Inf)
Ireland 798 (692 – 897) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -140 (41 – Inf)
Israel 299 (225 – 354) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -20 (640 – Inf)
Italy 3409 (3204 – 3641) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -47 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 568 (481 – 661) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -40 (65 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 116 (61 – 171) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 20 (6.3 – Inf)
Kosovo 41 (9 – 67) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 140 (5.2 – Inf)
Kuwait 113 (67 – 162) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 34 (7.8 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 36 (9 – 58) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.7) 44 (4.7 – Inf)
Latvia 24 (0 – 44) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.2) 140 (3.1 – Inf)
Lebanon 52 (0 – 125) Unsure 2.2 (0.2 – 4.3) 30 (1.6 – Inf)
Lithuania 71 (30 – 110) Increasing 1.6 (1 – 2.2) 7.9 (3.6 – Inf)
Luxembourg 66 (28 – 103) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 27 (5.4 – Inf)
Malaysia 99 (47 – 142) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -15 (27 – Inf)
Mexico 530 (449 – 619) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 21 (11 – 110)
Moldova 122 (72 – 172) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -3000 (11 – Inf)
Morocco 215 (139 – 289) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 9.9 (5.6 – 39)
Netherlands 1076 (941 – 1204) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -96 (55 – Inf)
New Zealand 37 (0 – 80) Unsure 1.6 (0.1 – 3) -5.8 (1.5 – Inf)
Niger 35 (2 – 65) Unsure 1 (0.3 – 1.6) -15 (5.5 – Inf)
North Macedonia 79 (38 – 121) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 15 (5.1 – Inf)
Norway 109 (60 – 146) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 59 (8.9 – Inf)
Oman 84 (41 – 121) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 41 (7.3 – Inf)
Pakistan 490 (403 – 571) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.4 – 33)
Palestine 30 (0 – 58) Likely increasing 2.3 (0.4 – 4.2) 3.6 (1.1 – Inf)
Panama 194 (115 – 275) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -300 (12 – Inf)
Peru 1106 (978 – 1229) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (16 – 550)
Philippines 227 (166 – 289) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 140 (14 – Inf)
Poland 387 (312 – 461) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 62 (15 – Inf)
Portugal 543 (453 – 629) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 58 (24 – 94) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -120 (7.4 – Inf)
Qatar 403 (332 – 478) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (7.1 – 23)
Romania 381 (310 – 454) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 190 (19 – Inf)
Russia 3953 (3711 – 4178) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (9.1 – 13)
Saudi Arabia 758 (663 – 858) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (7.7 – 17)
Serbia 447 (378 – 540) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.1 – 31)
Singapore 697 (600 – 795) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.8 (6.1 – 11)
Slovakia 84 (37 – 126) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2.1) 7 (3.6 – 93)
South Africa 171 (117 – 217) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 11 (6 – 64)
South Korea 40 (5 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.9) 520 (4.1 – Inf)
Spain 4636 (4375 – 4890) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 390 (51 – Inf)
Sweden 605 (515 – 699) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (15 – Inf)
Switzerland 368 (296 – 433) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -17 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 34 (5 – 60) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -22 (6.2 – Inf)
Tunisia 56 (14 – 97) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.8 – 2.3) 7.9 (3.1 – Inf)
Turkey 4267 (4012 – 4485) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -100 (260 – Inf)
Ukraine 486 (391 – 568) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (9 – 42)
United Arab Emirates 334 (266 – 403) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -56 (33 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5174 (4907 – 5434) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -74 (3800 – Inf)
United States of America 31335 (30730 – 32039) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (61 – Inf)
Uruguay 28 (0 – 53) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.5) 13 (2.7 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 103 (50 – 157) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) -1200 (8.8 – Inf)